Economics

Natural Resource Economics and Finance

D&D Larix, LLC, operates a Natural Resources Economics and Finance Division known as Forest Econometrics. Our services are focused on addressing a wide variety of natural resource and environmental issues concerning economics: commodity valuation, price projections, cost forecasting, operations analysis for productivity and profitability, developing management and taxation policy based on social, financial and political constraints, optimization of business operations, and land resource valuation for appraisal purposes.
Econometrics is the application of mathematical and statistical techniques to economics in the study of problems, the analysis of data, and the development and testing of theories and models. We accomplish this through a variety of techniques applied to the specifics of the situation we are addressing.

Several methods of delivering services in economics are provided to our clients. This is accomplished through an online educational delivery system sharing basic information about valuation approaches. While we focus on natural resources, specifically forestry, a Finance web area shares information about how to project and discount values through time. This is the Forest Econometrics web platform where all information are shared freely.

FRASS

The Forest Resource Analysis System Software (FRASS) web platform is hosted on a joined web domain through two portals. The first domain Forest Econometrics shares information about the FRASS platform’s approach to integrate physical forest site characteristics with Microeconomics and Macroeconomics data, to generate meaningful forestland value for each specific landowner. This approach makes financial assessments for land parcels – the unit of property owned by people, organizations, and agencies. Each property is segmented into forestland timber stands, sometimes called timber blocks, with soils, access, wildlife habitat, riparian zones, and other site features expressed through forest biometrics analyses producing Growth & Yield projections into the future.

Forest biometrics has been practiced around the world, but has been greatly refined within the past few decades to produce extremely useful information for forestland managers to determine not only timber volume at future dates, but to predict potential wildlife habitat characteristics, insect and disease risks, wildfire hazards, riparian zone opportunities, and much more. When we conduct the biometric analyses of forestland properties, we make projections annually for about 10 years, then transition to make them at each progressive quinquinnium (every 5-years) for another 250 years.

We then repeat this analysis for the next timber rotation on each timber stand. The regenerated forest may enable a different species mix, genetic forest enhancements, or include precommercial thinning activities. All biometric projections are made with quinquinnium forecasts for another 250 years. This SQL database structure is extended for a third timber rotation, carrying all physical site characteristic data forward in time.

By saving thee prognoses in SQL databases, the FRASS program accesses site specific information at each time-specific analysis point to discover log species, grade, sort, and volume found on each timber stand, making the parallel analysis feature possible: commodity valuation.

Timber commodity value is found competitive markets around the world. Each market is unique, but all markets are joined by the basics of supply and demand. Timber is considered a “derived demand” commodity as the demand for timber products such as lumber, pulp, and paper products provides the value basis for the timber it is made from.

We study timber markets around the USA, Canada, Asia, and other regions to discover trends, cycles, market shocks, and associated macroeconomic guiding forces making market predictions possible. The Real Price Appreciation Forecast Tool (RPA Forecast Tool) expresses the near- and mid-term price cycles found in specific markets.